Citing flaws in Hirschorn's arithmetic, Rick Edmonds at Poynter reassures: "It all may come to pass within a decade or sooner. Not, however, at The New York Times in May. " He says that the Times can easily deal with the $400 million credit line it needs to pay off in May (while having $46 million in the bank recently) by, in effect, kiting credit cards—using untapped portions of its lines of credit to pay off the balance due.
Realistically, the banks are likely to frown on that notion, and are undoubtedly pressuring the company to come up with cash in other ways, such as selling their stake in the Red Sox and doing a sale-leaseback on its spiffy new building. Failing those tactics, as Edmonds says, lenders will be willing to renegotiate terms, but that comes at a price—in fees, in future interest rates, and in future financial flexibility.
And at Venturebeat, Chris Morrison has a long reaction of a different kind, entitled "If the New York Times dies, does the news die?" exploring how long-form analytical and investigative journalism can be paid for in an online-only news environment. He debunks some of the usual answers, and suggests (in line with a news industry disaggregation model others have proposed):
[W]hat healthy news organizations should really be offering this new breed of capable writers [self-supporting reporters and bloggers] is a sort of insurance against unsuccessful articles consisting of an up-front payment for any piece of writing. The rest of the writer’s income should come from performance earnouts — another formula that is yet to be mastered. Keeping it to those basics would be a radical change from the wage-based compensation model of print, along with its sprawling hierarchy of editors and publishers, costly offices, expense reports and support staff. When that world meets the internet’s stripped-down operating model, there may well be money for good journalism again.Morrison points out that contrary to pessimistic perceptions that the audience is "dumbing-down," demand for top-quality content is actually growing. He cites an analysis called "The Age of Mass Intelligence" by John Parker, which is worth a read.
Supporting good journalism in that fashion is an excellent idea (even if the formula is "yet to be mastered" or even invented), and it's totally consistent with my view, detailed yesterday, that the Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, and by implication every struggling metro market paper should abandon incremental change and get on with reinvention. It would be short-sighted for the Times to simply reshuffle its debt structure without exploring a bold, transformational, reinventive step, like melding its seven printed editions into one great weekend "guide to everything" package, along with continued reinvention and improvement of its already great online operation.